Surprises in scheduled macroeconomic announcements: Why do they move the bond market?


Hess, Dieter


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URL: http://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/523
URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-5237
Dokumenttyp: Arbeitspapier
Erscheinungsjahr: 2000
Sprache der Veröffentlichung: Englisch
Einrichtung: Sonstige Einrichtungen > Zentrum für Europ. Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
MADOC-Schriftenreihe: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
Fachgebiet: 330 Wirtschaft
Fachklassifikation: JEL: E44 G14 ,
Normierte Schlagwörter (SWD): Makroökonomie , Verbraucherinformation , Kreditmarkt
Abstract: It is well known that information arrival has an impact on prices volatility, and trading volume in financial markets. Scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as monthly employment figures, consumer prices, or building permits, stand out from the steady flow of information. Several studies show that these releases have a very distinct impact on prices. While most of these studies try to find out which releases are significant, considerably less effort has been devoted to the question what makes some releases so important in contrast to others that seem to attract no attention. Papers addressing this question emphasize the content of releases. For example, Edison (1996) discriminates between news related to unexpected inflation and those related to unexpected changes in economic activity. Investigating intraday T-bond futures price responses to surprises in scheduled macroeconomic releases, this paper presents evidence that the type of information is relevant. More specifically, the results suggest that the sequence of releases within a given content category helps to explain their relative importance. In other words, if market participants have already observed some figures on which they can base their assessment of a particular aspect of the economy, then the additional information of another related report should be small, and thus, its impact on prices.
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