What does ex-post evidence tell us about the output effects of future tax reforms?

Kneller, Richard ; Misch, Florian

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    Official URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/3176
    URN: urn:nbn:de:bsz:180-madoc-31768
    Item Type: Working Paper
    Year of publication: 2011
    Journal or Publication Title: ZEW discussion papers
    Volume: 11/029
    Place of Publication: Mannheim
    Language: English
    Divisions: Sonstige Einrichtungen > Zentrum für Europ. Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW)
    MADOC-Schriftenreihe: Veröffentlichungen des ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung) > ZEW Discussion Papers
    Subjects: 330 Economics
    Thesauri: JEL: E62 H20 O20
    SWD Keywords
    (Library Service Center BW)
    OECD , Steuerreform , Steuerpolitik , Steuerwirkung , Wirtschaftswachstum , Multiplikator
    Keywords in alternate Language: Tax reforms , tax policy , aggregate growth , tax multipliers , fiscal policy
    Abstract: This paper reviews the existing evidence on the effects of tax reforms on output levels and growth over the short and long run from different strands of the literature. It develops and applies criteria to evaluate the usefulness of ex-post estimates to predict the effects of tax reforms ex-ante. These include whether the estimated policy change can be replicated in practice and whether the estimates are reliable. Based on these criteria we present detailed tables summarizing and comparing ex-post estimates of the effects of tax reforms. Overall, our review suggests that at least the direction of the long-run growth effects can be predicted with a reasonable degree of certainty. However, our review also suggests that depending on the tax change, trade-offs between short-run stabilization and long-run growth may arise and that more research on this question is needed.
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